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Constraining the trend in the ocean CO2 sink during 2000-2022
Nicolas Mayot1, Erik T Buitenhuis2, Rebecca M Wright2
1School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. n.mayot@uea.ac.uk.
Nature Communications
|September 28, 2024
Summary
The ocean absorbs significant carbon dioxide (CO2), but estimates of its CO2 sink trend vary. A new hybrid method reconciles models and observations, revealing a constrained 2000-2022 ocean CO2 sink trend.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Carbon Cycle Research
Background:
- The ocean is a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
- Discrepancies exist between observation-based and model-based estimates of the ocean CO2 sink trend from 2000-2022.
- Understanding the ocean CO2 sink is crucial for climate change mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To address the discrepancy in ocean CO2 sink trend estimates.
- To develop a hybrid approach combining observational data and process-based models.
- To provide a more accurate estimate of the ocean CO2 sink trend from 2000-2022.
Main Methods:
- Developed a hybrid approach for estimating the ocean CO2 sink.
- Preserved consistency of known oceanographic processes.
- Constrained model outcomes using observational data.
Main Results:
- The hybrid approach reproduced the decadal variability of the ocean CO2 sink, including a 1990s stagnation and 2000s reinvigoration.
- Process-based models were found to underestimate the amplitude of decadal variability.
- Observation-based products were found to overestimate the 2010s trend.
Conclusions:
- The 2000-2022 ocean CO2 sink trend is constrained to 0.42 ± 0.06 Pg C yr-1 decade-1.
- The total land CO2 sink is inferred to be 0.28 ± 0.13 Pg C yr-1 decade-1.
- This study provides a more robust estimate of carbon sequestration in the ocean and on land.
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