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Urgent climate action requires understanding carbon emissions drivers. Economic complexity indicators are key, predicting divergent future emissions for developed versus developing nations.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Modeling
  • Socioeconomics

Background:

  • Achieving sustainable development goals necessitates urgent climate action, particularly carbon emissions reduction.
  • Understanding the socioeconomic drivers of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is crucial for accurate prediction and effective policy-making.
  • Existing models often lack the granularity to capture the complex interplay between economic indicators and emissions pathways.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply global modeling frameworks for hindcasting and forecasting CO2 emissions.
  • To identify key socioeconomic drivers influencing CO2 emissions across 117 countries.
  • To project future CO2 emission trends up to 2035 based on identified drivers and country development status.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized two global modeling frameworks: a multivariate regression and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR).
  • Hindcasted CO2 emissions until 2021 and forecasted emissions up to 2035 for 117 countries.
  • Analyzed 12 socioeconomic indicators, including economic well-being, green and complexity economics, and energy consumption.

Main Results:

  • Identified key drivers of CO2 emissions, with indicators from the Economic Complexity field emerging as significant.
  • Revealed divergent emission dynamics based on countries' development status.
  • The RFR model predicts a -6.2% reduction in emissions for developed economies and a +19% increase for developing economies by 2035 (relative to 2020).

Conclusions:

  • Economic complexity and beyond-GDP indicators are critical for explaining CO2 emission pathways.
  • Differential future emission trajectories necessitate tailored strategies for developed and developing nations.
  • Promoting green growth and sustainable development in low-capacity contexts is essential to mitigate global emissions.