Predicting Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Prostate Cancer: A SEER-Based Comprehensive Study

Neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC) represents a particularly aggressive subtype of prostate cancer with a challenging prognosis. The purpose of this investigation is to craft and confirm the reliability of nomograms that can accurately forecast the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates for individuals afflicted with NEPC.

Data pertaining to patients diagnosed with NEPC within the timeframe of 2010 to 2020 was meticulously gathered and examined from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER). To predict OS and CSS, we devised and authenticated two distinct nomograms, utilizing predictive variables pinpointed through both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

The study encompassed 393 of NEPC patients, who were systematically divided into training and validation cohorts at a 2:1 ratio. Key prognostic factors were isolated, verified, and integrated into the respective nomograms for OS and CSS. The performance metrics, denoted by C-indices, stood at 0.730, 0.735 for the training set, and 0.784, 0.756 for the validation set. The precision and clinical relevance of the nomograms were further corroborated by the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses.

The constructed nomograms have demonstrated impressive efficacy in forecasting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and rates for patients with NEPC. Implementing these predictive tools in clinical settings is anticipated to considerably enhance the care and treatment planning for individuals diagnosed with this aggressive form of prostate cancer, thus providing tailored and more precise prognostic assessments.