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Quantifying vulnerability to plant invasion across global ecosystems.

William G Pfadenhauer1, Bethany A Bradley1,2

  • 1Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.

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Summary

The "tens rule" for invasive species is inaccurate, with actual invasion rates varying widely globally. New data shows higher invasion risks than the 10% estimate, especially on islands and in tropical regions.

Keywords:
base rateinvasion rateinvasive plantsisland susceptibilitytens ruletropical ecosystemsweed risk assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasion Biology
  • Conservation Science

Background:

  • The
  • The widely cited "tens rule" estimates 10% of non-native species become invasive.
  • This rule's accuracy is debated due to limited original data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To comprehensively evaluate the "tens rule" for plants.
  • To analyze invasion rate variations across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones.
  • To provide updated, empirically-based invasion rate estimates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a novel database of 9501 established and 2924 invasive plant species.
  • Conducted the first empirical analysis of invasion rate variability across diverse environmental contexts.
  • Compared invasion rates across different spatial scales (country, continental), island vs. mainland, and climate zones.

Main Results:

  • Invasion rates are highly variable globally, ranging from 7.2% to 33.8% in well-sampled areas.
  • Invasion rates are scale-dependent, averaging 17% at country and 25% at continental scales.
  • Islands and tropical ecosystems exhibited significantly higher invasion rates than mainlands and temperate zones, respectively.

Conclusions:

  • The "tens rule" is an unreliable general predictor of plant invasion rates.
  • Invasion rates frequently exceed 10% and are strongly influenced by recipient environment characteristics.
  • Updated invasion rate data is crucial for refining invasive species management and risk assessments.