Capacity Models and Transmission Risk Mitigation: An Engineering Framework to Predict the Effect of Air Disinfection...

A first-principles-based model for predicting the effect of germicidal radiation interventions for air disinfection is presented. Calculation of the "capacity" of an intervention expressed in volumetric flow rate allows for a direct comparison against fresh-air dilution ventilation and filtration systems, which are quantified in terms of the clean air provided. A closed-form expression to predict the combined quantitative impact of spatial gradients and mixing currents on the efficiency with which an intervention is applied is introduced. If validated, this would allow for systems to be selected and sized based on simple metrics across a broad range of settings and applications. The expressions developed are compared against available experimental data sets, and future validation efforts are proposed. Additionally, a method to identify an optimal operating capacity for a given setting by comparing costs associated with disease transmission against the cost of capacity is derived using the Wells-Riley equation and presented as an appendix.