Nuclear power generation phase-outs redistribute US air quality and climate-related mortality risk

We explore how nuclear shut-downs in the United States could affect air pollution, climate and health with existing and alternative grid infrastructure. We develop a dispatch model to estimate emissions of CO₂, NO and SO₂ from each electricity-generating unit, feeding these emissions into a chemical transport model to calculate effects on ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Our scenario of removing nuclear power results in compensation by coal, gas and oil, resulting in increases in PM_2.5 and ozone that lead to an extra 5,200 annual mortalities. Changes in CO₂ emissions lead to an order of magnitude higher mortalities throughout the twenty-first century, incurring US$11-180 billion of damages from 1 year of emissions. A scenario exploring simultaneous closures of nuclear and coal plants redistributes health impacts and a scenario with increased penetration of renewables reduces health impacts. Inequities in exposure to pollution are persistent across all scenarios-Black or African American people are exposed to the highest relative levels of pollution.