A Nomogram for Predicting Infertility Risk in Patients With Varicocele Using Inflammatory Markers

The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram using hemogram inflammatory markers to predict the risk of infertility in patients with varicocele (VC). Patients with VC from March 2022 to June 2024 were retrospectively investigated. We divided the patients into two groups based on their fertility status. A total of 162 patients were enrolled: 81 in the infertile group and 81 in the fertile group. Statistical differences were observed between the two groups in lymphocyte, monocyte, erythrocyte, red cell distribution width (RDW), mean erythrocyte volume (MCV), mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width (PDW), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), MPV/platelet ratio (MPVPR), and systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) (p < .05). The 162 patients were divided into a modeling cohort and a validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio. A predictive nomogram was constructed based on independent influencing factors identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to assess the model's performance. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that erythrocyte count, PDW, NLR, and SIRI were independent influencing factors. The area under the curve for the nomogram predicting the risk of infertility in patients with VC was 0.869 in the validation cohort. The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance. In this study, we developed an effective predictive nomogram for assessing the risk of infertility in VC patients using inflammatory markers. However, further external validation is crucial.