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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may evolve to be milder over time, similar to common cold viruses. Factors influencing its pathogenicity include host mobility and environmental conditions, with potential for reduced severity if certain human activities are avoided.

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Recent studies suggest SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity may increase.
  • SARS-CoV-2 is a direct respiratory virus, unlike lymphatically spreading viruses.
  • Respiratory viruses often evolve towards milder forms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review factors influencing respiratory virus severity.
  • To examine potential evolutionary pathways for SARS-CoV-2.
  • To discuss human and political influences on viral pathogenicity.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review of factors affecting respiratory virus severity.
  • Analysis of viral characteristics, including tropism and surface proteins.
  • Examination of environmental and anthropogenic factors impacting transmission and pathogenicity.

Main Results:

  • Factors like heat sensitivity and surface protein changes typically lower severity.
  • Replication in lymphatics and non-respiratory transmission routes can increase pathogenicity.
  • Human activities (large-scale testing, close-contact settings, poor hygiene) and political events can enhance SARS-CoV-2 harmfulness.

Conclusions:

  • SARS-CoV-2 is likely to evolve towards milder forms, similar to common cold viruses.
  • The timescale for this evolution is uncertain, potentially taking decades.
  • Avoiding specific human activities and environmental conditions may accelerate the decrease in pathogenicity.