Risk prediction of diabetic retinopathy based on visit-to-visit fasting blood glucose indices

The long-term glucose monitoring is essential to the risk assessment of diabetic retinopathy (DR), the aim of this study was to investigate the predictive ability of visit-to-visit fasting blood glucose (FBG) indices on the risk of DR.

This was a community-based, cohort study conducted from 2013 to 2021. DR was diagnosed by digital fundus photography. The FPG indices included FBG, var. Associations of each FBG indices and DR were estimated using multinomial logistic regression models adjusting for confounders, and discrimination was determined by area under the curve (AUC). Predictive utility of different models was compared by changes in AUC, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification index (NRI).

This study analyzed 5054 participants, the mean age was 46.26 ± 11.44 years, and 2620 (51.84%) were women. After adjustment for confounders, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for FBG, SD, CV, VIM, ARV, M-FBG, and cumulative FBG load were 1.62 (1.52-1.73), 2.74 (2.38-3.16), 1.78 (1.62-1.95), 1.11 (0.95-1.29), 1.72 (1.56-1.91), 2.15 (1.96-2.36), and 2.57 (2.31-2.85), respectively. The AUC of the model with separate cumulative FBG load and classical risk factors was 0.9135 (95%CI 0.8890-0.9380), and no substantive improvement in discrimination was achieved with the addition of other FBG indices once cumulative FBG load was in the model.

Cumulative FBG load is adequate for capturing the glucose-related DR risk, and the predictive utility of cumulative FBG load is not significantly improved by adding or replacing other FBG indices in the assessment of DR risk.