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Tumor size and molecular risk group are associated with differentiated thyroid cancer recurrence
Saba Kurtom1, Jason B Liu2, William R Doerfler3
1Division of Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, PA.
Background:
The threshold at which active surveillance can be considered is variable, with some algorithms proposing nonoperative treatment for differentiated thyroid carcinomas ≤2 cm and lobectomy alone for lesions 2.1-4 cm. To inform both decision for and extent of initial surgery, we aim to evaluate whether molecular results can complement tumor size to identify differentiated thyroid carcinomas associated with disease recurrence.
Methods:
Patients from 2007-2013 and 2017-2021 who had initial thyroidectomy (differentiated thyroid carcinoma size 1-4 cm, clinical N0M0) were included. When available, molecular testing results were categorized into 3 previously described molecular risk groups (low, intermediate, and high). Primary outcome was structural recurrence.
Results:
Recurrence was diagnosed in 3.8% of 1,739 patients with differentiated thyroid carcinomas. Preoperative variables including size (1-2 cm vs 2.1-4 cm, P = .43), age >55 years (P = .92), and male sex (P = .31) were not associated with recurrence. Molecular testing results were available for 1,020, and after excluding molecular risk group high-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma, structural recurrences were associated with molecular risk group intermediate risk (7.2% vs molecular risk group low, 0.7%, P < .001), and most likely in differentiated thyroid carcinoma, which were both 2.1-4 cm and molecular risk group intermediate risk (11.3% vs size 1-2 cm 5.8%, P = .04).
Conclusion:
Overall, structural recurrences for differentiated thyroid carcinomas ≤4 cm were low (<5%) and molecuar testing was the only preoperative variable associated with recurrence. However, when molecular risk group intermediate risk was present, larger tumor size (2.1-4 cm) had a 2-fold greater risk of recurrence compared with tumors 1-2 cm, and size may still be helpful to guide management. When considering de-escalated treatment for the proposed guidelines with a cutoff of 2 cm, initial decision-making may be further optimized with identification of preoperative molecular risk groups.
