Quantitative investigation and intelligent forecasting of thermal conductivity in lime-modified red clay

This paper delves into the engineering applications of lime-stabilized red clay, a highly water-sensitive material, particularly in the context of the climatic conditions prevalent in the Dalian region. We systematically investigate the impact of water content, dry density, and freeze-thaw cycles (with a freezing temperature set at -10°C) on the thermal conductivity of stabilized soil, a crucial parameter for analyzing soil temperature fields that is influenced by numerous factors. By developing and validating both empirical and machine learning prediction models, we unravel the evolution of thermal conductivity in response to these factors: within the range of influencing variables, thermal conductivity exhibits an exponential or linear increase with rising water content and dry density, while it decreases exponentially with increasing freeze-thaw cycles. Furthermore, we quantitatively analyze the specific influence of water content and other factors on the thermal conductivity of stabilized soil and construct a comprehensive prediction model encompassing BP neural network, gradient boosting decision tree, and linear regression models. Comparative analysis highlights the significant enhancement in prediction accuracy achieved by the proposed ensemble model over single machine learning models, with root mean square error (RMSE) values below 0.05 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values remaining under 2.5% in both frozen and unfrozen states. Additionally, a secondary validation using experimental data from other researchers confirms the model's good agreement with previous results, demonstrating its robust generalization ability. Our findings provide valuable insights for engineering studies in the Dalian region and red clay areas subjected to extreme climatic conditions.