Locating the suitable large-scale solar farms in China's deserts with environmental considerations

Desert areas offer rich solar resources and low land use costs, ideal for large-scale new energy development. However, desert ecosystems are fragile, and large-scale photovoltaic (PV) power facilities pose ecological risks. Current assessments of PV plant sites in deserts lack consideration of wind-sand hazards and ecological impacts. In this study, we have developed a new large-scale photovoltaic (PV) site selection model that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with geographic information system technology, and applies it to the desert regions of China. The results show that the potential for large-scale PV power plants in China's deserts is significant, with 69.4 % of the region assessed as medium or higher. The most suitable area is 12.7 × 10⁴ km² (7.6 % of the overall study area), mainly centered in the Tibetan Plateau's Qaidam Basin Desert and the deserts of northern China, characterized by favorable solar resources, climate, and terrain. Across all regions, gravel deserts are recognized as more suitable for the construction of large-scale PV power projects than sandy deserts. Considering varying PV installation density scenarios with an installed capacity potential of 36.4-84.9 TW and system costs ranging from 10.0 to 33.5 trillion USD, the study estimates an annual solar power generation potential of 47-110 PWh which is 1.7-3.9 times the global electricity demand. Carbon emissions could be reduced by 26.8-62.6 gigatons annually, offsetting 73-170 % of global emissions. Covering just 4.8-11.5 % of China's desert area (8 × 10⁴-19.4 × 10⁴ km²) would meet the projected 2025 electricity needs of the country. This study lays the groundwork for spatial planning and benefit assessment of large-scale PV projects in desert regions, and reduces conflicts between PV plant construction and local ecosystem.