Projecting future minimum mortality temperature in China

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Science
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Global warming necessitates understanding climate adaptation's effect on minimum mortality temperature (MMT).
• Accurate MMT assessment is vital for quantifying climate change-related mortality burdens.
• Forecasting future MMT is challenging due to the lack of projected mortality data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel method for projecting future MMT.
• To identify reliable temperature indicators for MMT prediction.
• To assess potential changes in MMT across China under different climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Estimated MMT for 334 Chinese locations using distributed lag nonlinear models.
• Applied meta-regression to link MMT with various temperature variables, including percentiles.
• Utilized generalized linear regression to analyze MMT-temperature relationships across the 1st to 100th percentiles.

Main Results:

• Temperatures between the 85th and 89th percentiles showed a strong association with MMT.
• The 88th percentile of temperature was identified as the most effective MMT indicator.
• Projected MMT is expected to rise in most of China by 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

Conclusions:

• The 88th percentile temperature serves as a robust proxy for projecting future MMT.
• Findings provide a valuable tool for estimating temperature-related mortality risks under climate change.
• This approach aids in developing targeted public health interventions for climate adaptation.