Herbarium specimens reveal a cryptic invasion of polyploid Centaurea stoebe in Europe

Numerous plant species are expanding their native ranges due to anthropogenic environmental change. Because cytotypes of polyploid complexes often show similar morphologies, there may be unnoticed range expansions (i.e. cryptic invasions) of one cytotype into regions where only the other cytotype is native. We critically revised herbarium specimens of diploid and tetraploid Centaurea stoebe, collected across Europe between 1790 and 2023. Based on their distribution in natural and relict habitats and phylogeographic data, we estimated the native ranges of both cytotypes. Diploids are native across their entire European range, whereas tetraploids are native only to South-Eastern Europe and have recently expanded their range toward Central Europe. The proportion of tetraploids has exponentially increased over time in their expanded but not in their native range. This cryptic invasion predominantly occurred in ruderal habitats and enlarged the climatic niche of tetraploids toward a more oceanic climate. We conclude that spatio-temporally explicit assessments of range shifts, habitat preferences and niche evolution can improve our understanding of cryptic invasions. We also emphasize the value of herbarium specimens for accurate estimation of species´ native ranges, with fundamental implications for the design of research studies and the assessment of biodiversity trends.