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Comparative ecological analysis and predictive modeling of tick-borne pathogens.

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Black-legged ticks spread Lyme disease, babesiosis, and anaplasmosis. This study models environmental factors impacting pathogen prevalence in New York, revealing distinct ecological patterns for Babesia microti and Anaplasma phagocytophilium.

Keywords:
diseaseecologymachine learningticksvector

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Entomology
  • Epidemiology
  • Disease Ecology

Background:

  • Tick-borne diseases are a major North American health concern.
  • Black-legged tick populations and associated diseases like Lyme disease are expanding.
  • Limited research exists on environmental factors influencing Babesia microti and Anaplasma phagocytophilium.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the impact of environmental features on tick-borne pathogen infection prevalence in New York State.
  • To investigate the ecological determinants of Babesia microti and Anaplasma phagocytophilium distribution.
  • To forecast future infection prevalence using validated biogeographic models.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized over a decade of surveillance data (2009-2019) from New York State.
  • Developed biogeographic models incorporating over 250 environmental variables.
  • Modeled infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilium in Ixodes scapularis.

Main Results:

  • Observed consistent northward and westward expansion of Babesia microti across New York.
  • Documented fine-scale spatial variation in Anaplasma phagocytophilium range.
  • Identified divergent environmental influences on pathogen distribution, suggesting unique ecological dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • Environmental factors significantly shape the prevalence and distribution of tick-borne pathogens.
  • Biogeographic models can accurately forecast pathogen prevalence.
  • Findings support targeted disease prevention strategies by highlighting ecological differences between pathogens.