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Related Experiment Video

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Estimating Causal Effects on a Disease Progression Trait Using Bivariate Mendelian Randomisation.

Siyang Cai1, Frank Dudbridge1

  • 1Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.

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Summary

This study introduces methods to correct collider bias in multivariable Mendelian Randomisation (MR) analyses. Applying this to smoking and Crohn's disease prognosis found no causal link, highlighting the importance of bias adjustment in genetic epidemiology.

Keywords:
Crohn's diseaseGWAScausalityindex event biasinstrumental variableselection bias

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Genetic Epidemiology
  • Statistical Genetics

Background:

  • Mendelian Randomisation (MR) uses genetic variants to infer causal relationships between risk factors and outcomes.
  • Multivariable MR extends this to multiple risk factors but can be susceptible to collider bias.
  • Collider bias can arise when conditioning on a variable associated with both the exposure and outcome, potentially distorting causal estimates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the critical issue of collider bias in multivariable MR when the outcome is disease progression.
  • To propose a generalized instrument effect regression and corrected weighted least squares (CWLS) method to adjust for collider bias in MR.
  • To assess the causal effect of smoking initiation and cessation on Crohn's disease prognosis, accounting for potential bias.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a generalized instrument effect regression and CWLS adjustment method for multivariable MR.
  • Application of the method to assess the causal effects of smoking initiation and cessation on Crohn's disease prognosis.
  • Evaluation of the assumptions and utility of the proposed bias adjustment technique.

Main Results:

  • The proposed generalized instrument effect regression and CWLS adjustment can reduce collider bias in multivariable MR.
  • Illustrative application to smoking and Crohn's disease prognosis found no evidence of a causal effect of smoking initiation or cessation on disease prognosis.
  • The study underscores the necessity of addressing collider bias in MR studies, particularly those involving disease progression.

Conclusions:

  • Collider bias is a significant concern in multivariable MR, especially for disease progression outcomes.
  • The generalized instrument effect regression and CWLS method provides a robust approach to mitigate this bias.
  • There is no evidence supporting a causal effect of smoking initiation or cessation on Crohn's disease prognosis when accounting for collider bias.