Development and validation of a nomogram for sleep disorders among stroke patients

Precisely identifying high-risk sleep disorder patients and implementing suitable measures are important for decreasing the incidence of sleep disorders. In this study, a nomogram method was adopted to construct a tool to predict sleep disorders in stroke based on four factors: individual characteristics, treatment-related factors, psychological factors, and family-related factors.

A total of 450 stroke patients were continuously diagnosed at the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, and the data on participants were randomly distributed into a training set (n = 315) and a validation set (n = 135). Within the training set, using LASSO regression and random forest methods, five optimal predictors of sleep disorders were identified. Five optimal predictors were used to develop a model. The calibration, discrimination, generalization, and clinical applicability of the model were evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, internal validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

We found that the place of residence, average daily infusion time, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the Type D Personality Scale-14 (DS14), and the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) were crucial factors associated with sleep disorders. The validation data showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.903 compared to 0.899 in the training set. There was an approach to the diagonal in the calibration curve of this model, and the results of DCA noted that it is clinically beneficial across a range of thresholds from 5 % to 99 %.

A model was developed to predict sleep disorders among stroke patients to help hospital staff evaluate the risk among patients and screen high-risk patients.