Gestational diabetes and future cardiovascular diseases: associations by sex-specific genetic data

Observational studies have highlighted that gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, but the causality remains unclear. Herein, the causality between genetic predisposition to gestational diabetes mellitus and the risk of cardiovascular diseases was investigated using sex-specific Mendelian randomization analysis.

Linkage disequilibrium score regression analysis and two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis were applied to infer the genetic correlation and causality, respectively. Mediation analysis was conducted using a two-step Mendelian randomization approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to differentiate causality from pleiotropy. The genome-wide association study summary statistics for gestational diabetes mellitus were obtained from FinnGen consortium, while for cardiovascular diseases were generated based on individual-level genetic data from the UK Biobank.

Linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses revealed that gestational diabetes mellitus had a significant genetic correlation with coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction after Benjamini-Hochberg correction in ever-pregnant women. In Mendelian randomization analyses, odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction were 1.09 (1.01-1.17) and 1.12 (.96-1.31) per unit increase in the log-odds of genetic predisposition to gestational diabetes mellitus in ever-pregnant women, respectively. Further, Type 2 diabetes and hypertension were identified as mediators for the causality of genetic predisposition to gestational diabetes mellitus on coronary artery disease. In sensitivity analyses, the direction of odds ratio for the association between instrumental variables with gestational diabetes mellitus-predominant effects and the risk of coronary artery disease was consistent with the primary results in ever-pregnant women, although not statistically significant.

This study demonstrated a suggestive causal relationship between genetic predisposition to gestational diabetes mellitus and the risk of coronary artery disease, which was mainly mediated by Type 2 diabetes and hypertension. These findings highlight targeting modifiable cardiometabolic risk factors may reduce the risk of coronary artery disease in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.