Multiple resiliency metrics reveal complementary drivers of ecosystem persistence: An application to kelp forest...

Human-caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp-grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency.