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Updated: Jun 8, 2025
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A Modified Trier Social Stress Test for Vulnerable Mexican American Adolescents
Published on: July 10, 2017
12.8K
Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States
Julia Li Zhu1, Nancy Chau2, Amanda D Rodewald3
1Department of Economics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182.
Summary
Extreme weather, particularly drought, drives undocumented migration from Mexico to the U.S. Persistent extreme weather reduces the likelihood of migrants returning to their home communities.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sociology
- Climate Change Studies
Background:
- Climate change is increasing extreme weather events globally.
- Extreme weather conditions can act as a driver for human migration.
- Understanding migration patterns is crucial for policy and humanitarian efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of extreme weather on undocumented migration between Mexico and the United States.
- To analyze how weather shocks affect both the decision to migrate and the decision to return.
- To assess the long-term implications of weather-related migration.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of data from 48,313 individuals across 84 Mexican agricultural communities (1992-2018).
- Statistical modeling to correlate undocumented migration and return decisions with lagged weather deviations (May-August).
- Control for regional and temporal confounding factors in migration analysis.
Main Results:
- Undocumented migration likelihood increased significantly in areas experiencing extreme drought.
- Persistent extreme weather conditions were associated with a lower probability of migrants returning to Mexico.
- Weather shocks play a demonstrable role in migration dynamics and settlement patterns.
Conclusions:
- Extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, are significant drivers of undocumented migration.
- Weather-related migration increases risks for individuals, including dangerous journeys and reliance on smugglers.
- Findings highlight the need to consider climate impacts on human mobility and border dynamics.
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