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Projecting Untruncated Climate Change Effects on Species' Climate Suitability: Insights From an Alpine Country
Antoine Adde1,2, Nathan Külling3, Pierre-Louis Rey2
1Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
Global Change Biology
|November 5, 2024
Summary
Climate change will significantly impact Swiss biodiversity, affecting many species and leading to geographical shifts. Protected areas may increase in suitable climate zones, aiding conservation planning.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and environmental science
- Biodiversity research
- Climate change impact assessment
Background:
- European climate projections indicate drier summers and altered precipitation patterns, necessitating biodiversity impact assessments.
- Current conservation strategies lack comprehensive, climate-driven biodiversity projections across diverse taxonomic groups.
- Switzerland, an alpine country, faces unique challenges due to its geography and projected climate shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity in Switzerland.
- To provide comprehensive, climate-driven biodiversity projections across 12 major taxonomic groups.
- To inform spatial conservation planning by identifying future climate-suitable areas.
Main Methods:
- Utilized state-of-the-art species distribution modeling with extensive species occurrence data.
- Quantified relationships between baseline climate and the distribution of 7291 species.
- Projected future climate suitability under two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three 30-year periods.
Main Results:
- Projected significant climate suitability changes for a majority of species, with higher impacts under RCP8.5 (68%) than RCP4.5 (66%).
- By 2070-2099, substantial decreases in climate suitability were projected for thousands of species, particularly molluscs, algae, and amphibians (RCP8.5).
- Geographical shifts in climate suitability were predominantly upward, southward, and eastward, with increased coverage by protected areas.
Conclusions:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to Swiss biodiversity, necessitating adaptive conservation strategies.
- Species distribution models provide crucial insights for proactive conservation planning in a changing climate.
- Identifying and protecting future climate-suitable areas is essential for preserving biodiversity in Switzerland.
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