Setting thresholds to determine COVID-19 activity levels using the mean standard deviation (MSD) method, England,...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Virology

Background:

• Quantifying respiratory virus activity is crucial for public health surveillance.
• Existing methods like the moving epidemic method (MEM) are established for influenza but may have limitations for novel or less seasonal viruses.
• Accurate assessment of viral activity aids in timely public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and validate a novel method for quantifying respiratory virus activity levels.
• To establish the mean standard deviation (MSD) method as a reliable tool for COVID-19 surveillance.
• To assess the applicability of the MSD method for other respiratory viruses lacking extensive historical data or clear seasonality.

Main Methods:

• Development of the mean standard deviation (MSD) method for setting activity level thresholds.
• Validation of the MSD method by comparing its performance against the established moving epidemic method (MEM).
• Utilizing COVID-19 activity data for method validation.

Main Results:

• The newly developed MSD method demonstrated highly similar results when compared to the long-standing MEM for influenza.
• The MSD method provides a robust quantification of COVID-19 activity levels.
• Successful validation indicates the MSD method's reliability.

Conclusions:

• The mean standard deviation (MSD) method is a validated and effective tool for quantifying COVID-19 activity.
• The MSD method offers a valuable alternative for monitoring respiratory viruses, particularly those with limited historical data or seasonality.
• This method can enhance surveillance efforts when multiple respiratory viruses are co-circulating.