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A surrogate FRAX model for Nepal.

H Johansson¹, D Pandey², M Lorentzon³

¹Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

Archives of Osteoporosis

|November 15, 2024

Summary

A new surrogate FRAX® model for Nepal was developed using Indian fracture data and Nepalese mortality rates. This tool aids in assessing fracture risk and guiding treatment decisions for Nepal's population.

Keywords:

FRAX Hip fracture Nepal Surrogate model

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Area of Science:

Osteoporosis research
Public health epidemiology

Background:

FRAX® models are essential for countries lacking hip fracture incidence data.
Surrogate models utilize regional fracture data with country-specific mortality.
This approach enables risk assessment in data-limited regions.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and characterize a surrogate FRAX® model for Nepal.
To provide a tool for estimating fracture probability in Nepal.

Main Methods:

Constructed a surrogate FRAX® model for Nepal.
Utilized age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates from the Indian community in Singapore.
Incorporated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for Nepal (2015-2019).
Estimated hip fracture numbers for 2015 and projected for 2050 based on UN demographic changes.

Main Results:

The Nepal surrogate model showed similar probabilities to Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan.
It yielded lower 10-year fracture probabilities for older men and women compared to the Singapore model, reflecting Nepal's higher mortality.
High correlation (r > 0.995) between Nepal and Singapore models maintained risk rank order.
Estimated 6897 hip fractures in 2015, projected to triple to 23,409 by 2050.

Conclusions:

The developed surrogate FRAX® model offers a valuable tool for assessing fracture probability in Nepal.
This model can inform clinical decisions regarding osteoporosis treatment and prevention strategies.