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A surrogate FRAX model for Mongolia.

M Jaalkhorol1, H Johansson2, S Avirmed3

  • 1Department of Health Research, Graduate School, Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. myadagmaa@mnums.edu.mn.

Archives of Osteoporosis
|February 16, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

A new surrogate FRAX® model for Mongolia was developed using Chinese hip fracture data and Mongolian mortality rates. This tool can help assess osteoporosis fracture risk and guide treatment decisions in Mongolia.

Keywords:
FRAXHip fractureMongoliaSurrogate model

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Area of Science:

  • Osteoporosis research
  • Public health epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • FRAX® models are crucial for assessing fracture risk but often lack data in many countries.
  • Developing surrogate FRAX® models uses regional fracture data with country-specific mortality rates when local data is scarce.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and characterize a surrogate FRAX® model tailored for the Mongolian population.
  • To establish intervention thresholds for major osteoporotic fractures in Mongolia.

Main Methods:

  • Constructed a surrogate FRAX® model for Mongolia by combining age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates from China with Mongolian mortality data (2015-2019).
  • Defined intervention thresholds based on prior fragility fracture probabilities.
  • Estimated current and future hip fracture incidence based on demographic projections.

Main Results:

  • The surrogate model yielded hip fracture probabilities comparable to Chinese estimates.
  • Intervention thresholds for major osteoporotic fractures varied by age, from 2.4% at 40 years to 13.7% at 90 years.
  • An estimated 440 hip fractures occurred in 2015, projected to increase 4.3-fold to 1896 by 2050.

Conclusions:

  • The developed surrogate FRAX® model offers a valuable tool for estimating fracture probability in Mongolia.
  • This model can inform clinical decisions regarding osteoporosis treatment and prevention strategies within the Mongolian population.