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Published on: January 23, 2017
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Modeling and testing strategic interdependence and tipping in public policy implementation.
Lu Liu1, Zhihan Cui2, Howard Kunreuther3
1New York University Shanghai, Shanghai 200124, China.
Summary
State policy choices on COVID-19, like mask mandates and shelter-in-place orders, are heavily influenced by neighboring states. Political alignment significantly impacts adoption, with states tipping towards policies adopted by similar states.
Area of Science:
- Game Theory
- Econometrics
- Public Policy Analysis
Background:
- COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like mask-wearing and shelter-in-place (SIP) are critical.
- State-level policy decisions in the US lack a unified federal approach, leading to varied responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and test a game-theoretic model of strategic interdependence in state-level COVID-19 policy adoption.
- To analyze the factors influencing the implementation of social distancing and mask-wearing policies across US states.
Main Methods:
- Development of a game-theoretic model of strategic interdependence.
- Econometric estimation using probit and logit models.
- Analysis of daily state-level COVID-19 policy data in the United States.
Main Results:
- Significant interdependence confirmed in state policy choices regarding SIP and mask-wearing.
- Evidence of a 'tipping point' effect where widespread adoption by some states influences others.
- Policy adoption is primarily driven by peer state choices, political orientation, and to a lesser extent, case numbers.
- Mask-wearing policies are more sensitive to peer influence than SIP policies.
- Republican-led states show lower adoption rates for mask-wearing policies compared to Democratic-led states.
Conclusions:
- State policy decisions exhibit strong strategic interdependence, influenced by political alignment and peer behavior.
- Political considerations often outweigh public health data in policy adoption.
- The study provides an analytical framework for understanding complex, interdependent policy dynamics.
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