Shifting agricultural land use and its unintended water consumption in the North China Plain

Agricultural land use (ALU) critically influences food production and water resource allocation. This study examines the dynamics of ALU in the North China Plain (NCP), a region characterized by intensive agriculture and severe groundwater over-exploitation, focusing on the multidimensional drivers and their implications for water resource management. By employing an elaborate classification scheme based on satellite imagery and extensive first-hand field data, we identified significant shifts in crop patterns. From 2013 to 2017, there was a notable transition from double crops (primarily wheat-maize) to single crops (primarily maize), covering 4600 km² and accounting for 42% of single crops in 2013. From 2017 to 2022, there was a shift from single crops to economic forests, encompassing 3600 km² and 22% of economic forests in 2017, including orchards, timber trees, and shelter forest belts. These shifts resulted in an 11% decrease in grain acreage (6800 km²) but an 11% increase in crop water consumption (6.3 km³) during 2013-2022. Notably, water consumption by economic forests increased by 126% (9.4 km³) during this period. This study highlights the critical need to balance competing demands for food and water security, providing valuable insights applicable to other agriculturally intensive regions worldwide.