Natural Selection after Severe Winter Favors Larger and Duller Bluebirds

AbstractExtreme cold events, which have become more frequent, can revert the direction of long-term responses to climate change. In 2021, record snowstorms swept the United States, causing wildlife die-offs that may have been associated with rapid natural selection. Our objective was to determine whether the snowstorms caused natural selection in Eastern Bluebirds (Sialia sialis). To test which mechanism most influenced their survival, we measured the morphology and coloration of fatalities and survivors at three sites. Survival was associated with a longer tarsus and with a wider, longer, and deeper beak, in support of the starvation and thermal endurance hypotheses. Additionally, bluebirds with more-ornamented plumage were less likely to have survived, perhaps because of an early energy investment in mate and site acquisition. As bluebirds encounter increasingly warm summer conditions, the longer extremities favored during the snowstorms may continue to be favored through their thermoregulatory benefits. However, the dull plumage coloration favored by natural selection during the snowstorms may be opposed by sexual selection benefits of more-ornamented plumage. Overall, responses to extreme events are difficult to predict from responses to long-term climate change, and responses to one event, such as the 2021 snowstorms, may not predict responses to a future extreme event.