Future projections for mammalian whole-brain simulations based on technological trends in related fields

Large-scale brain simulation allows us to understand the interaction of vast numbers of neurons having nonlinear dynamics to help understand the information processing mechanisms in the brain. The scale of brain simulations continues to rise as computer performance improves exponentially. However, a simulation of the human whole brain has not yet been achieved as of 2024 due to insufficient computational performance and brain measurement data. This paper examines technological trends in supercomputers, cell type classification, connectomics, and large-scale activity measurements relevant to whole-brain simulation. Based on these trends, we attempt to predict the feasible timeframe for mammalian whole-brain simulation. Our estimates suggest that mouse whole-brain simulation at the cellular level could be realized around 2034, marmoset around 2044, and human likely later than 2044.