Climate change and wind energy potential in South America

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Renewable Energy Analysis
• Environmental Impact Assessment

Background:

• Wind energy is vital for climate change mitigation.
• Economic feasibility of wind power depends on resource availability, which climate change may alter.
• Understanding future wind resource evolution is critical for sustainable energy strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the future of wind energy resources in South America.
• To analyze wind resource changes under various climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).
• To provide insights for climate-resilient wind energy planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the latest climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) encompassing low, medium, and high emissions.
• Developed a multi-model ensemble of Global Climate Models.
• Selected models based on historical accuracy in the South American region.

Main Results:

• Projected substantial increases (over 100% in some areas) in average wind power density east of the Andes (Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela), particularly under high-emission scenarios.
• Anticipated significant reductions (up to ~50%) in wind power density west of the Andes, affecting South Chile, Peru, and waters off West Colombia.
• Highlighted the importance of projected changes in South Chile, currently the continent's windiest region.

Conclusions:

• Climate change poses a significant threat to wind energy resources in parts of South America.
• Even low-emission scenarios indicate relevant changes, underscoring the need for proactive climate adaptation in wind energy planning.
• Findings emphasize the necessity of integrating climate change projections into the strategic development of wind energy infrastructure.