[COVID-19 fatality rate conditioned by risk factors in Mexico in 2020]

The COVID-19 fatality rate exhibited significant variations during the first year of the pandemic, and such divergences seem to show different levels of risk of death among populations. Very few studies stratified fatality based on the presence or absence of risk factors.

To identify COVID-19 fatality rates conditioned by risk factors.

Secondary analysis using an open health database from the Secretariat of Health of Mexico (Secretaría de Salud), covering patients studied from January 1, 2020, to January 6, 2021. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 result were included; those with 5 risk factors or more, or with rare combinations of factors were excluded. The final sample consisted of 394,537 patients. The database was segmented into groups based on 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 risk factors. The fatality rate conditioned by risk factors was estimated (83 combinations).

Among patients with 0 risk factors, the fatality rate was 2.1%. In those aged ≥ 50 years alone or more, the fatality rate was 20.2%. The combination of factors with the highest fatality rate was age ≥ 50 years + diabetes + obesity (57.1%).

COVID-19 fatality rates conditioned by risk factors ranged from 1.7% to 57.1%, according to the presence or absence of specific comorbidities. Studies like this are necessary to address more precisely the risk of death among subpopulations exposed to different risk factors.