Backward induction-based multi-layer approach for watershed flood management in arid regions

Area of Science:

• Environmental Engineering
• Water Resource Management
• Urban Planning

Background:

• Traditional linear flood management methods are inadequate for interconnected urban and nonurban areas in arid regions prone to flash floods.
• Flash floods in arid regions pose significant risks due to rapid runoff and complex watershed dynamics.
• Existing approaches often fail to address interdependencies between upstream and downstream flood management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel multi-stage, cyclic decision-making framework for integrated flood management.
• To address the interdependencies between upstream nonurban and downstream urban areas in flash flood management.
• To resolve conflicts of interest among stakeholders while optimizing flood control measures.

Main Methods:

• Hydraulic and Hydrological (H/H) modeling using SWMM.
• Multi-stage optimization framework including detention dam placement and sizing.
• COPRAS method for selecting critical upstream management strategies.
• Backward Induction Game Theory (BIGT) for conflict resolution and Nash Equilibrium identification.

Main Results:

• Reduced flood peaks at urban entrances by 60.7%.
• Enhanced shock absorption capacity by 81.8%.
• Successful resolution of stakeholder conflicts through game theory.
• Development of a sustainable flood management scenario considering hydrological and socio-economic factors.

Conclusions:

• The proposed cyclic framework offers a dynamic and integrated approach to flash flood management.
• The framework effectively balances upstream and downstream flood control with stakeholder consensus.
• This approach leads to significant reductions in flood risk and improved resilience in complex watersheds.