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Setting priorities for floods mitigation through forest restoration: The threshold elevation hypothesis.
Jorge Hurtado-Pidal1, Mauricio Aguayo2, Oscar Link3
1Department of Territorial Planning and EULA-Center, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile.
Journal of Environmental Management
|November 30, 2024
Summary
Nature-based solutions for flood regulation require understanding climate and land-use impacts. This study found a critical elevation threshold in the Ecuadorian Amazon where these impacts shift, guiding effective forest restoration strategies.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Climate Science
- Ecology and Environmental Management
Background:
- Understanding climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) impacts on floods is crucial for effective nature-based solutions (NbS).
- The interplay between climate change, LUCC, and flood dynamics, particularly concerning altitudinal gradients, remains poorly understood.
- Forest restoration is a key NbS for flood regulation, but its efficacy depends on localized environmental changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the hypothesis that climate change and LUCC effects on floods change abruptly at a specific elevation threshold.
- To analyze the isolated and combined effects of climate change and LUCC on flood events across an altitudinal gradient.
- To inform forest restoration strategies as NbS for flood regulation in tropical basins under changing environmental conditions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the TETIS hydrological model to simulate flood events under various climate and LUCC scenarios.
- Assessed projected precipitation data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
- Analyzed flood dynamics at 42 flow sites across an altitudinal gradient in the Tena watershed, Ecuadorian Amazon.
Main Results:
- Confirmed the existence of an elevation threshold at 590 m above sea level (a.s.l.) where abrupt changes in flood behavior were observed.
- Determined that LUCC effects on floods were dominant in the upper basin, whereas climate change effects were more significant in the lower basin.
- Identified that climate change impacts on floods were particularly pronounced for small and medium-sized flood events in the lower basin.
Conclusions:
- Native forest restoration is a priority NbS above the identified 590 m elevation threshold for effective flood regulation.
- The findings provide critical insights for NbS implementation in humid tropical basins facing climate change.
- This research highlights the importance of considering altitudinal gradients when planning flood management and restoration efforts.
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