Urban-rural carbon emission differences in China's urbanization: Spatial effects and influencing factors

Coping with climate crisis and promoting urbanization are important parts of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thus controlling carbon emissions in the urbanization process becomes the crux of achieving the SDGs, and the increase of carbon emissions due to urban-rural differences and intra-provincial rural-urban migration are important and neglected parts of the study on carbon emissions during the urbanization process. Utilizing China 2017 cross-sectional data and environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model (EEMRIO) to account for China's urban-rural household consumption carbon emission differences (HCCEDs) and carbon emission increments (CEIs) due to intra-provincial rural-urban migration, this research integrates spatial lag model (SLM) and threshold regression (TR) model to investigate the spatial effects, individual differences and influencing factors of HCCED in the context of urbanization. The results indicate that HCCEDs are higher in the north and lower in the south, with significant spatial aggregation effects. Household consumption expenditure ratio (q = 2.03) becomes the determining factor in moderating the influence degree of other factors, with consumption difference and demographic difference emerging as the pivotal exacerbating and inhibiting factors. The results of this study will provide data, methodological basis and policy recommendations for the development of new urbanization and low-carbon cities, facilitating further investigation the driving mechanisms of HCCEDs.