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Regime switching in coupled nonlinear systems: Sources, prediction, and control-Minireview and perspective on the
Igor Franović1, Sebastian Eydam2, Deniz Eroglu3,4
1Scientific Computing Laboratory, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia.
Complex systems exhibit regime switching, transitioning between states due to changing conditions. This research explores advanced methods for forecasting, detecting, and controlling these dynamics to prevent system failures.
Area of Science:
- Complex Systems Science
- Dynamical Systems Theory
- Network Science
Background:
- Regime switching is a common phenomenon in diverse complex systems, including climate, ecosystems, power grids, and neural networks.
- Understanding and predicting these state transitions are critical for system stability and preventing catastrophic failures.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide new insights into the mechanisms and prediction of regime switching dynamics.
- To explore advanced theoretical and data-driven methods for detecting and controlling regime shifts.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical analysis using reduction approaches for coupled stochastic and adaptive systems.
- Data-driven detection methods and non-feedback control strategies.
- Investigating the influence of multiple timescales and chaotic dynamics on regime switching.
Main Results:
- Advances in reduction techniques for complex systems with stochastic and adaptive components.
- Demonstration of deep learning for predicting power grid failures and adaptive strategies for epidemic control.
- Exploration of chaotic saddles and heteroclinic cycles in pattern switching.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights novel theoretical and data-driven approaches to understand and manage regime switching.
- Developments in forecasting, detection, and control strategies are crucial for complex system resilience.
- This work aims to foster interdisciplinary dialogue on complexity and regime dynamics.
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