Predictive analysis of COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination impacts across the 50 US states

This study aimed to outline a machine learning model to assess the effectiveness of vaccination in COVID-19 confirmed cases and fatalities. The proposed model was evaluated using external validation to ensure optimal protection of vaccinated populations, distinguishing between males and females.

The data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US, collected between 2021 and 2023, were preprocessed through merging and imputation. A deep learning long short-term memory (LSTM) model was developed to analyze the effectiveness of vaccination in predicting COVID-19 cases and fatalities. The model, which was validated internally and externally, examined the impact of vaccination according to sex. The performance was assessed against current state-of-the-art models, with the LSTM model exhibiting lower root mean square error (RMSE) values.

We performed intra-, inter-, and external-validation analyses. First, one- and two-dose vaccinations significantly reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and mortality in highly affected states. Second, in the inter-model analysis, the LSTM outperformed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting cases and deaths, yielding superior results for Texas, California, and Florida. Third, with external validation, our LSTM model effectively predicted vaccination impacts regardless of sex.

Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination, showing that full vaccination significantly reduced the number of confirmed cases and deaths, influencing future public health policies.