[Dynamic Scenario Simulation of Building Carbon Peak from the Perspective of Urbanization]

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the building sector will continue to grow. Therefore, the future dynamic evolution of building carbon emissions must be crucially investigated to achieve the "dual carbon" target in China. A system dynamics model of "urbanization-building carbon emissions" was constructed from the perspective of urbanization for revealing the mechanism of urbanization-related factors on building carbon emissions. On this basis, a dynamic simulation of the evolution trend and peak situation of building carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei （BTH） Region from 2000 to 2050 was carried out using multi-scenario analysis. The results showed that： ① Under the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions of rural residential buildings, urban residential buildings, and commercial buildings peak in 2027, 2028, and 2037, respectively, with peaks （in CO₂） of 0.60×10⁸, 0.99×10⁸, and 1.95×10⁸ tons. ② Under the low-carbon scenario, the peak （in CO₂, the same below） time of carbon emissions of urban residential buildings was the most advanced, reaching the peak of 0.88×10⁸ tons in 2024. ③ In the deep low-carbon scenario, the peak time of carbon emissions of the overall buildings occurred five years earlier than that in the low-carbon scenario. It was predicted to peak at 2.61×10⁸ tons in 2028, reaching the 2030 carbon peak target. ④ The sensitivity analysis showed that the carbon emission factor of commercial buildings and the per capita commercial building space floor in the spatial dimension were the major factors influencing the building carbon emissions, followed by the percentage of the urban population in the population dimension. Finally, suggestions are made for the government of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to carry out energy conservation and emission reduction planning.