Clinical and Genomic Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Subtypes

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a complex, heterogeneous disease with distinct etiological mechanisms. These different etiologies may give rise to multiple subtypes of CAD that could benefit from alternative preventions and treatments. However, so far, there have been no systematic efforts to predict CAD subtypes using clinical and genetic factors.

Here, we trained and applied statistical models incorporating clinical and genetic factors to predict CAD subtypes in 26 036 patients with CAD in the UK Biobank. We performed external validation of the UK Biobank models in the US-based All of Us cohort (8598 patients with CAD). Subtypes were defined as high versus normal LDL (low-density lipoprotein) levels, high versus normal Lpa (lipoprotein A) levels, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction versus non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, occlusive versus nonocclusive CAD, and stable versus unstable CAD. Clinical predictors included levels of ApoA, ApoB, HDL (high-density lipoprotein), triglycerides, and CRP (C-reactive protein). Genetic predictors were genome-wide and pathway-based polygenic risk scores (PRSs).

Results showed that both clinical-only and genetic-only models can predict CAD subtypes, while combining clinical and genetic factors leads to greater predictive accuracy. Pathway-based PRSs had higher discriminatory power than genome-wide PRSs for the Lpa and LDL subtypes and provided insights into their etiologies. The 10-pathway PRS most predictive of the LDL subtype involved cholesterol metabolism. Pathway PRS models had poor generalizability to the All of Us cohort.

In summary, we present the first systematic demonstration that CAD subtypes can be distinguished by clinical and genomic risk factors, which could have important implications for stratified cardiovascular medicine.