Estimation of Cancer Deaths Averted From Prevention, Screening, and Treatment Efforts, 1975-2020
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Updated: Jun 5, 2025
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Published on: October 6, 2023
Katrina A B Goddard1, Eric J Feuer1, Jeanne S Mandelblatt2
1Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
Importance:
Cancer mortality has decreased over time, but the contributions of different interventions across the cancer control continuum to averting cancer deaths have not been systematically evaluated across major cancer sites.
Objective:
To quantify the contributions of prevention, screening (to remove precursors [interception] or early detection), and treatment to cumulative number of cancer deaths averted from 1975 to 2020 for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
In this model-based study using population-level cancer mortality data, outputs from published models developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network were extended to quantify cancer deaths averted through 2020. Model inputs were based on national data on risk factors, cancer incidence, cancer survival, and mortality due to other causes, and dissemination and effects of prevention, screening (for interception and early detection), and treatment. Simulated or modeled data using parameters derived from multiple birth cohorts of the US population were used.
Interventions:
Primary prevention via smoking reduction (lung), screening for interception (cervix and colorectal) or early detection (breast, cervix, colorectal, and prostate), and therapy (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate).
Main Outcomes And Measures:
The estimated cumulative number of cancer deaths averted with interventions vs no advances.
Results:
An estimated 5.94 million cancer deaths were averted for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers combined. Cancer prevention and screening efforts averted 8 of 10 of these deaths (4.75 million averted deaths). The contribution of each intervention varied by cancer site. Screening accounted for 25% of breast cancer deaths averted. Averted cervical cancer deaths were nearly completely averted through screening and removal of cancer precursors as treatment advances were modest during the study period. Averted colorectal cancer deaths were averted because of screening and removal of precancerous polyps or early detection in 79% and treatment advances in 21%. Most lung cancer deaths were avoided by smoking reduction (98%) because screening uptake was low and treatment largely palliative before 2014. Screening contributed to 56% of averted prostate cancer deaths.
Conclusions And Relevance:
Over the past 45 years, cancer prevention and screening accounted for most cancer deaths averted for these causes; however, their contribution varied by cancer site according to these models using population-level cancer mortality data. Despite progress, efforts to reduce the US cancer burden will require increased dissemination of effective interventions and new technologies and discoveries.
Insights
Cancer prevention and screening efforts averted 4.75 million deaths from 5 major cancers. These interventions, alongside treatment, significantly reduced cancer mortality from 1975 to 2020.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Cancer mortality has declined, but the specific impact of interventions across the continuum of care remains unevaluated for major cancer types.
- Understanding the contributions of prevention, screening, and treatment is crucial for optimizing cancer control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the cumulative number of cancer deaths averted by prevention, screening, and treatment for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers between 1975 and 2020.
- To analyze the differential impact of each intervention strategy across these major cancer sites.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a model-based approach extending published Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models.
- Incorporated national data on risk factors, incidence, survival, mortality, and intervention effectiveness.
- Simulated population-level data for the US population across multiple birth cohorts.
Main Results:
- An estimated 5.94 million cancer deaths were averted for the studied cancers.
- Prevention and screening accounted for 80% (4.75 million) of averted deaths.
- Intervention contributions varied by cancer: smoking reduction dominated lung cancer prevention (98%), screening was key for cervical (nearly 100%) and colorectal (79%) cancers, and screening contributed significantly to breast (25%) and prostate (56%) cancer deaths averted.
Conclusions:
- Cancer prevention and screening have been the primary drivers of averted deaths for major cancers over the past 45 years.
- The relative impact of interventions is cancer-specific, highlighting the need for tailored approaches.
- Continued progress requires broader implementation of effective interventions and advancements in new technologies and discoveries.
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