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Protocol for making forecasts exogenous in the International Futures model.
José Solórzano1, Barry B Hughes1, Mohammod T Irfan1
1University of Denver, Pardee Institute, Denver, CO 80210, USA.
STAR Protocols
|December 11, 2024
Summary
This study introduces a protocol for integrating external data into the International Futures (IFs) model. This enhances forecasting for global development and environmental challenges by incorporating socioeconomic pathways.
Area of Science:
- Integrated assessment modeling
- Global change science
- Socioeconomic forecasting
Background:
- Effective policy strategies for planetary and development challenges require understanding future dynamics.
- The International Futures (IFs) model is a tool for exploring long-term global futures.
- Incorporating diverse data, such as socioeconomic pathways, is crucial for robust modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a protocol for adding exogenous series to the IFs model database.
- To enable the integration of key variables like Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- To facilitate more comprehensive future scenario analysis within the IFs framework.
Main Methods:
- Installation of IFs modeling software and SQLiteStudio.
- Database exploration and understanding of the IFs data structure.
- Step-by-step guide for importing exogenous data series.
- Procedures for running the IFs model with new data and extracting results.
Main Results:
- A documented protocol for enhancing the IFs model with external data.
- Demonstrated ability to import and utilize Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) within IFs.
- Improved capacity for scenario analysis addressing complex global challenges.
Conclusions:
- The presented protocol provides a practical method for extending the analytical capabilities of the IFs model.
- Integrating exogenous data enhances the model's utility for policy-relevant foresight.
- This approach supports more informed decision-making for sustainable development and environmental stewardship.
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