Characterization and regional linkage analysis of PM2.5 emissions driven by energy consumption in mainland China,
Yingying Liu1, Ruihua Shen2, Lei Yao1
1College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, 250358, China.
Abstract:
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution poses a serious threat to public health, and there has been a recent resurgence in PM2.5 pollution levels in China. Inter-provincial trade has further complicated the allocation of responsibility for PM2.5 emissions. An in-depth analysis of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP), a highly effective environmental policy, offers new perspectives and avenues for reflection. Using the multi-regional input-output model and structural decomposition analysis model, this study provides insights into the interlinkages of PM2.5 emissions, and their influencing mechanisms among different regions from the perspective of source emissions by quantifying the dynamics of production-related PM2.5 emissions (PEp) associated with energy consumption and the key driving socio-economic factors in the pre-and post-APPCAP phases. The results indicate that PEp initially increased and then decreased over the study period. In the pre-policy stage, only five provinces exhibited a decrease in PEp, and this number increased to 21 provinces post-policy. Manufacturing and energy utilities consistently account for significant PEp contributions, particularly in Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi. This study finds that pre-policy, the industrial structure effect, the demographic effect, and the level of affluence effect primarily drove PEp increases. The post-policy decrease was influenced by industrial structure and consumption pattern effects. Although China's PEp remains higher than the consumption-based PM2.5 emissions (PEc), significant provincial variations exist. Notably, while changes in PEp do not always align with PM2.5 concentration changes, simultaneous reductions following policy implementation signal positive progress in pollution control. This underscores the necessity of continuously optimizing policy strategies to accommodate regional characteristics.
