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The Recent Rise in Homicide: An Analysis of Weekly Mortality Data, United States, 2018-2022
Michelle Degli Esposti1, Terry L Schell2, Rosanna Smart2
1From the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
|December 13, 2024
Summary
The US experienced a historic rise in firearm homicides starting in late 2019, predating the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge affected all demographics and locations, indicating factors beyond the pandemic drove the increase.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Criminology
Background:
- The United States witnessed an unprecedented single-year increase in homicide rates between 2019 and 2020.
- The precise timing and contributing factors, particularly in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and the killing of George Floyd, require systematic investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate trends in firearm and nonfirearm homicide across diverse sociodemographic and geographic groups.
- To clarify the timing and nature of the recent homicide increase in the US.
Main Methods:
- A descriptive epidemiologic study utilizing the National Vital Statistics System weekly mortality data (January 2018–December 2022).
- Seasonal adjustment and smoothing of weekly homicide data to quantify changes relative to key event dates (COVID-19, George Floyd killing, 2020 election).
- Disaggregation of homicide trends by sociodemographic and geographic characteristics.
Main Results:
- Firearm homicide increased by 54% from 2018 to 2022, while nonfirearm homicide remained stable.
- The rise in firearm homicide began in October 2019, with 28% of the increase occurring before the COVID-19 national emergency declaration.
- All sociodemographic and geographic groups experienced significant increases in firearm homicide.
Conclusions:
- The magnitude and timing of the recent homicide increase have been underestimated due to crude data and seasonal effects.
- The COVID-19 pandemic alone does not explain the historic surge, which is specific to firearm homicide.
- The increase in firearm homicide, starting in late 2019, impacted all individuals and regions across the United States.
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