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Advance drought prediction through rainfall forecasting with hybrid deep learning model.

Brij B Gupta1,2,3,4, Akshat Gaurav5,6, Razaz Waheeb Attar7

  • 1Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Asia University, Taichung, 413, Taiwan. bbgupta@asia.edu.tw.

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Summary

Accurate rainfall prediction is key to mitigating drought damage. A new hybrid stacked model using Bi-directional LSTM and LSTM layers improves forecasting accuracy for better drought management.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Data science
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Drought poses a significant natural disaster risk, impacting large areas over time.
  • Accurate drought prediction is essential for damage reduction and effective management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel hybrid stacked model for rainfall prediction to enhance drought forecasting.
  • To improve the accuracy of drought prediction through advanced time series analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a hybrid stacked model integrating Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layers.
  • Utilized Bi-LSTM in the first layer for feature extraction and LSTM in the second layer for prediction.
  • Processed multivariate time series data, capturing complex temporal dependencies in both forward and backward directions.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrated improved forecasting accuracy in rainfall prediction.
  • The hybrid stacked approach effectively captured complex temporal dependencies in the data.
  • Trained using Mean Squared Error loss and Adam optimizer, achieving enhanced predictive performance.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed hybrid stacked model shows significant potential for proactive drought management through accurate rainfall prediction.
  • This approach offers a valuable tool for improving drought forecasting and mitigating its adverse effects.