Predicting Severe Respiratory Failure in Patients with COVID-19: A Machine Learning Approach

Background/Objectives: Studies attempting to predict the development of severe respiratory failure in patients with a COVID-19 infection using machine learning algorithms have yielded different results due to differences in variable selection. We aimed to predict the development of severe respiratory failure, defined as the need for high-flow oxygen support, continuous positive airway pressure, or mechanical ventilation, in patients with COVID-19, using machine learning algorithms to identify the most important variables in achieving this prediction. Methods: This retrospective, cross-sectional study included COVID-19 patients with mild respiratory failure (mostly receiving oxygen through a mask or nasal cannula). We used XGBoost, support vector machines, multi-layer perceptron, k-nearest neighbor, random forests, decision trees, logistic regression, and naïve Bayes methods to accurately predict severe respiratory failure in these patients. Results: A total of 320 patients (62.1% male; average age, 54.67 ± 15.82 years) were included in this study. During the follow-ups of these cases, 114 patients (35.6%) required high-level oxygen support, 67 (20.9%) required intensive care unit admission, and 43 (13.4%) died. The machine learning algorithms with the highest accuracy values were XGBoost, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, and multi-layer perceptron (0.7395, 0.7395, 0.7291, 0.7187, and 0.75, respectively). The method that obtained the highest ROC-AUC value was logistic regression (ROC-AUC = 0.7274). The best predictors of severe respiratory failure were a low lymphocyte count, a high computed tomography score in the right and left upper lung zones, an elevated neutrophil count, a small decrease in CRP levels on the third day of admission, a high Charlson comorbidity index score, and a high serum procalcitonin level. Conclusions: The development of severe respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19 could be successfully predicted using machine learning methods, especially logistic regression, and the best predictors of severe respiratory failure were the lymphocyte count and the degree of upper lung zone involvement.