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Resurrection of Dormant Daphnia magna: Protocol and Applications
Published on: January 19, 2018
Resilience of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Valérian Jacques-Dumas1, Henk A Dijkstra1,2, Christian Kuehn3
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Abstract:
We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is presented, which leads to a measure capturing "resistance to change" and "ability to return" aspects in a probabilistic way. The application of this measure to a conceptual model demonstrates its suitability for assessing AMOC resilience but also shows its potential use in many other non-autonomous dynamical systems. This framework is then extended to compute the probability that the AMOC undergoes a transition conditioned on an external forcing. Such conditional probability can be estimated by exploiting the information available when computing the resilience of this system. This allows us to provide a probabilistic view on safe operating spaces by defining a conditional safe operating space as a subset of the parameter space of the (possibly transient) imposed forcing.
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