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Updated: Feb 26, 2026
12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest with a rare-event
Valérian Jacques-Dumas1,2, Henk A Dijkstra1,2
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|February 24, 2026
Summary
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could trigger Amazon rainforest degradation, leading to wildfires. However, a transition to degraded forest in Brazil within 200 years is unlikely, requiring prior AMOC weakening.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Climate Dynamics
- Ecology
Background:
- The Amazon rainforest and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are critical Earth system components susceptible to climate change impacts.
- A collapse in AMOC could precipitate Amazon rainforest degradation by altering precipitation patterns, a phenomenon known as a tipping cascade.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the probability of AMOC weakening influencing Amazon tree cover loss using a coupled conceptual model.
- To analyze the dynamics and mechanisms of the tipping cascade between AMOC and the Amazon rainforest.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a coupled conceptual model of the AMOC and Amazon rainforest.
- Employed the Time Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS) rare-event algorithm to simulate infrequent collapse events.
- Analyzed transition probabilities, transition times, and AMOC strength distributions during Amazon transitions.
Main Results:
- A transition of the Amazon rainforest to a degraded state within 200 years is improbable in northwest Brazil.
- Such a transition is contingent upon a preceding AMOC collapse, which induces significant drying and increases extreme wildfire risk.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights the interconnectedness of the AMOC and Amazon rainforest as tipping elements.
- While a rapid Amazon transition is unlikely, AMOC collapse poses a significant threat, potentially leading to severe degradation and wildfires.
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