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Measuring lost votes by mail.
Marc Meredith1, Michael Morse2, Amaya Madarang1
1Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA USA.
Science Advances
|December 20, 2024
Summary
Procedural requirements for mail balloting can cause "lost votes." A Pennsylvania study found at least 47% more lost mail votes than rejected ballots, potentially impacting election outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Election Administration
- Voting Behavior
Background:
- The expansion of mail balloting introduces concerns about procedural requirements leading to lost votes.
- Understanding the discrepancy between rejected mail ballots and actual lost votes is crucial for election integrity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To theorize how procedural requirements influence the incidence and form of lost mail votes.
- To identify measurement issues in equating lost votes with rejected mail ballots.
- To quantify the extent of lost mail votes compared to rejected ballots in a real-world election.
Main Methods:
- Theoretical framework development on factors affecting lost mail votes.
- Analysis of measurement issues: coverage, substitution, and deterrence.
- Case study of Pennsylvania's 2022 general election data.
Main Results:
- Rejected mail ballots may not accurately reflect the total number of lost mail votes.
- Pennsylvania's 2022 election showed at least 47% more lost mail votes than rejected ballots.
- The number of lost votes could be electorally significant, especially with partisan voting differences.
Conclusions:
- Equating lost mail votes with rejected ballots is a flawed measurement approach.
- Procedural requirements can lead to a substantial number of uncounted mail ballots.
- Addressing lost mail votes is essential for ensuring equitable and accurate election outcomes.
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