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Measuring lost votes by mail.

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  • 1Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA USA.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Procedural requirements for mail balloting can cause "lost votes." A Pennsylvania study found at least 47% more lost mail votes than rejected ballots, potentially impacting election outcomes.

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Election Administration
  • Voting Behavior

Background:

  • The expansion of mail balloting introduces concerns about procedural requirements leading to lost votes.
  • Understanding the discrepancy between rejected mail ballots and actual lost votes is crucial for election integrity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To theorize how procedural requirements influence the incidence and form of lost mail votes.
  • To identify measurement issues in equating lost votes with rejected mail ballots.
  • To quantify the extent of lost mail votes compared to rejected ballots in a real-world election.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical framework development on factors affecting lost mail votes.
  • Analysis of measurement issues: coverage, substitution, and deterrence.
  • Case study of Pennsylvania's 2022 general election data.

Main Results:

  • Rejected mail ballots may not accurately reflect the total number of lost mail votes.
  • Pennsylvania's 2022 election showed at least 47% more lost mail votes than rejected ballots.
  • The number of lost votes could be electorally significant, especially with partisan voting differences.

Conclusions:

  • Equating lost mail votes with rejected ballots is a flawed measurement approach.
  • Procedural requirements can lead to a substantial number of uncounted mail ballots.
  • Addressing lost mail votes is essential for ensuring equitable and accurate election outcomes.