Retrospective Study on the Association Between Climate Factors and Infant Colic in Beijing (2021-2022)

To assess seasonal variations in infant colic (IC) prevalence and explore the association between climate factors, including temperature, air pollutants, and their interactions, with IC.

Medical records of 1955 infants aged 0-3 months from October 2021 to September 2022 were analyzed, with IC diagnosed according to Rome IV criteria. Seasonal differences in IC prevalence were compared using chi-square tests. Climate data, including weekly averages of temperature, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, CO, O3, and AQI, along with 1-, 2-, and 4-week lags, were collected via web scraping. Interaction terms between temperature and pollutants (including lagged variables) were created. Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) addressed multicollinearity. Pearson correlation assessed linear relationships, while Generalized Additive Models (GAM) evaluated non-linear associations.

The overall IC prevalence was 38.62%. Demographic analysis showed no significant differences between infants with and without IC. Seasonal analysis revealed significant differences, with the highest IC prevalence in winter. After Bonferroni correction, spring (34.52%) and winter (43.60%) differed significantly (p < 0.0083). Linear correlation analysis indicated weak associations between temperature, pollutants, and their interactions with IC (correlation coefficients: -0.05 to 0.03). GAM confirmed these findings, with individual climate factors explaining only 0.002 of the deviance and their interactions explaining 0.007. No meaningful relationship between climate factors and IC prevalence was identified.

This study identified significant seasonal differences in IC prevalence, with the highest rates observed in winter. However, no significant linear or non-linear associations were found between IC and temperature, air pollutants, or their interactions. These findings underscore the need for future research to explore non-climatic factors.