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Eruptive Insect Outbreaks from Endemic Populations Under Climate Change.
Micah Brush1, Mark A Lewis2,3
1Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada. mbrush@uvic.ca.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|December 23, 2024
Summary
Mountain pine beetles, a forest pest, can remain at low densities before outbreaks. A new model shows climate change may eliminate their endemic equilibrium, triggering large-scale infestations.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Forestry
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Forest pests like the mountain pine beetle exhibit eruptive population dynamics, persisting at low densities before large outbreaks.
- Understanding the mechanisms driving these dynamics is crucial for forest management and conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a mechanistic model for mountain pine beetle population dynamics, incorporating low-vigor trees.
- To investigate how model parameters, particularly those influenced by climate change, affect endemic equilibrium and outbreak potential.
Main Methods:
- Extended a previous forest growth model by including a fraction of low-vigor trees representing weakened host defenses.
- Analyzed the model to determine the influence of individual parameters on the endemic equilibrium's existence and size.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrates that low-vigor trees can establish an endemic equilibrium for mountain pine beetle populations within plausible biological parameters.
- Specific parameter shifts, exacerbated by climate change, were shown to destabilize this equilibrium, leading to population outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- Mechanistic modeling provides insights into the factors governing forest pest population dynamics.
- Climate change poses a significant threat by potentially removing the endemic equilibrium, thereby increasing the risk of severe mountain pine beetle outbreaks.
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