A meta-analysis highlights the idiosyncratic nature of tradeoffs in laboratory models of virus evolution

Different theoretical frameworks have been invoked to guide the study of virus evolution. Three of the more prominent ones are (i) the evolution of virulence, (ii) life history theory, and (iii) the generalism-specialism dichotomy. All involve purported tradeoffs between traits that define the evolvability and constraint of virus-associated phenotypes. However, as popular as these frameworks are, there is a surprising paucity of direct laboratory tests of the frameworks that support their utility as broadly applicable theoretical pillars that can guide our understanding of disease evolution. In this study, we conduct a meta-analysis of direct experimental evidence for these three frameworks across several widely studied virus-host systems: plant viruses, fungal viruses, animal viruses, and bacteriophages. We extracted 60 datasets from 28 studies and found a range of relationships between traits in different analysis categories (e.g., frameworks, virus-host systems). Our work demonstrates that direct evidence for relationships between traits is highly idiosyncratic and specific to the host-virus system and theoretical framework. Consequently, scientists researching viral pathogens from different taxonomic groups might reconsider their allegiance to these canons as the basis for expectation, explanation, or prediction. Future efforts could benefit from consistent definitions, and from developing frameworks that are compatible with the evidence and apply to particular biological and ecological contexts.